“Macro” analysis remains today as fascinating as it is challenging. Here at home, Washington seems poised to move against unhelpful speculation. The marketplace has good reason to fear heavy-handedness. But don’t be surprised if it turns out more a case of light coddling: “Speculators please take notice that it is to your advantage to buy corporate bonds and mortgages instead of oil futures contracts.” Fiscal and monetary policymakers are formulating a recovery strategy. I would expect them to pull out all the stops – and not give up easily - in their efforts to accomplish objectives.

And despite the recent bludgeoning meted out in the commodities markets, I’m not keen to abandon the global reflation thesis. At its root, global reflation is premised upon a synchronized global government finance Bubble consequent to bursting Credit Bubbles and the breakdown in the global dollar reserve system. I am comfortable with the thesis yet recognize the analysis is tough and the circumstances fluid. Mostly, uncertainty and market volatility are as expected.

The global system remains in historic, uncharted, troubled and uncertain waters. But with $2 Trillion of US federal debt issuance on tap this year - perhaps matched by upwards of (a previously unimaginable) $2 Trillion of Chinese bank Credit growth – ongoing “Monetary Disorder” remains the best bet. And, of course, our policymakers are keen to this dynamic, and it would be typical of policymakers in such a predicament to resort to increasingly creative means to try to stabilize a desperately unstable pricing system. Can Washington rein in speculative flows? Can they channel and mobilize them?

Doug Noland is a market strategist at Prudent Bear Funds. Their website is www.prudentbear.com.